Search results for "Political Risk"

2019

Research Summary We explore the qualitative differences in entries and exits over time. Using qualitative and quantitative data on 96 firms over 200 years, we study industry evolution from the perspective of individual decision‐making situations. Our historical and statistical analyses reveal the vital role of technology investments in determining firm outcomes, and the technological, institutional and governance dynamics that lead firms to invest or to abstain. Our main theoretical and methodological contribution concerns the importance of the multiplicity of firm‐level rationalities and decisions as fundamentals in theorizing on industry evolution. Managerial Summary What determines firm …

Probabilistic European Country Risk Score Forecasting Using a Diffusion Model

2013

Over the last few years, global crisis has shaken confidence in most European economies. As a consequence, a lack of confidence has spread amongst European countries leading to Europe’s financial instability. Therefore, forecasting the next future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. In this respect, it would be interesting to use tools which allow to predict the trends and evolution of each country’s confidence rating. The Country Risk Score (CRS) represents a good indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political and financial Risk in order to determine country Risk ratings. CRS is underscored by Euromoney Agency and is…

Subjective Economic Risk to Beneficiaries in Notional Defined Contribution Accounts

2006

ABSTRACT This article aims to quantify the aggregate subjective economic risk to which beneficiaries would be exposed if a retirement pension system based on notional account philosophy were introduced. We use scenario generation techniques to make projections of the factors that determine the real expected internal rate of return (IRR) and the expected replacement rate (RR) for the beneficiary according to six retirement formulae based on the most widely accepted rates or indices. We then apply the model to the case of Spain. Our projections are based on Herce and Alonso's macroeconomic scenario 2000-2050 (2000) and include information about the past performance of the indices and the time…

Automatic Balance Mechanisms in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems

2009

This paper shows the usefulness of the automatic balance mechanisms (ABMs) and explores the issue of introducing an ABM into the Spanish public contributory retirement pension system. We define the concept of the automatic balance mechanism and carry out an analysis of those existing in Sweden, Canada, Germany, Japan and Finland. We also present an indicator of the Spanish system's solvency which emerges from the actuarial balance sheet, and simulate the effect that certain changes in the parameters of the present system would have on solvency, showing the direction that could be taken if the mechanism were to be introduced in Spain. The main conclusion reached is that, given the system's s…

Democracy, political risks and stock market performance

2015

We study whether the emerging stock markets’ performance is affected by direct and indirect effects of democracy level and political risk. We argue that the relationship between democracy level and the political risk is parabolic instead of a simple linear relation i.e. there exists a limit in democracy after which the political risk begins to decline and this is reflected in stock prices. Using panel data for 38 emerging markets at yearly frequency and controlling for several domestic and international factors, we find a fairly robust evidence that during the period 2000-2010, this relationship is true and after some threshold, the more democratic countries produce higher returns. Similar …

Political discretion and corruption: the impact of institutional quality on formal and informal entrepreneurship

2017

This paper analyses the impact of political discretion and corruption on firm creation rates, distinguishing between formal and informal entrepreneurship. The results show that political discretion discourages the creation of formal enterprises as fewer restrictions on the government's opportunistic behaviour increases uncertainty and risks for entrepreneurial activities. Corruption also has a negative influence on formal entrepreneurship, as it increases the costs of the procedures required to create and manage the company with no assurance that the other party will fulfil the agreement. Regarding informal entrepreneurship, our results show that the negative impact of corruption also appli…

Political risks: the “red shift” in debt sustainability analysis

2020

Political stability and economic policy uncertainty can be key determinants of sovereign debt dynamics, and we show how they can be incorporated in debt sustainability analysis. We distinguish between short-term ambiguity and long-term uncertainty about political risk factors, and using a combination of narrative scenarios and calibrated probabilistic scenarios we obtain a comprehensive heatmap of high-risk debt dynamics. We use Italy as an interesting case study and demonstrate a “red shift” in the assessment of vulnerabilities when accounting for political risks. Ignoring these risks can lead to excessive optimism and wrong decisions.

The Dimension, Diversity and Complexity of the Macroeconomic Risk

2020

The approach at a macroeconomic level of the challenges in order to foster the competitiveness in certain economic areas implies understanding and assessing the risk as an essential element which can determine in every moment the availability of the mechanisms and the necessary resources for a sustainable future. Even if in a certain measure the risk has to be assumed, the losses caused by undesired events seem to be more ample than the benefits. The most important aspect and part of the risk management is represented by the fact that risk has to be distributed over time, its effects being extended for long periods. While the benefits are hard to distinguish, the efforts seem to be determin…

An assessment of the 2011 Spanish pension reform using the Swedish system as a benchmark

2013

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to make an assessment of the 2011 reform of the public pension system in Spain using the Swedish pension system as a benchmark, although some reference to the US pension system is also made. The paper focuses on the reform, explaining its aims, breaking down the main contents, critically examining the official view and describing the expected ageing of the Spanish population. This approach complements the quantitative analyses performed by other researchers and will enable us to assess the reformed system with the focus on four main areas: actuarial fairness, actuarial transparency, solvency and communication with the public. The main conclusion is that the …

Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2011 Spanish Pension Reform Using the Swedish System as Benchmark

2012

The aim of this paper is to make an assessment of the 2011 reform of the public pension system in Spain using the Swedish pension system as a benchmark, although some reference to the US pension system is also made. The paper focuses on the reform, explaining its aims, breaking down the main contents, critically examining the official view and describing the expected ageing of the Spanish population. This approach complements the quantitative analyses performed by other researchers and will enable us to assess the reformed system with the focus on four main areas: actuarial fairness, actuarial transparency, solvency and communication with the public. The main conclusion is that the reform w…